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Monday, September 16, 2013


Last night Asian traders took the US futures market up roughly 1%. The big news was Larry Summers' withdrawing of his bid for the next Fed Chairman. This secures the more dovish Janet Yellen the job. Apparently the market liked the certainty of knowing whom the next chairman will be. Larry Summers would have likely been more aggressive in his tightening of fed policy.

This all makes for great cocktail party talk, however all I care about is what the price is most likely to do next.  Shorts stuck in that daily bull cup drove the prices to new highs and now we have an overbought market with ample air on all charts. Need to respect stuck shorts who need to cover on any moves down, but see the best hands as wholesale shorts. look for divergences and exhaustion pushes.



The market exhibited MATD type action in response to last night's rally. Basically, wholesale entries presented themselves when whipped up traders tried to position themselves as if today would be a trend day. Best entries were taking advantage of emotional overshoots at levels of support/resistance. The opening short sequence, air fill on break of 97.5 support level paid very nicely (aided by an extreme tick with price declining). I took a little at the open, but failed to re-enter when 97.5 broke and totally missed out on the necessary opportunity. I should have used that to fire myself up and trade more intensely today. The low 90's support zone paid wholesale longs very nicely too, with fast rejections off those prices. Also take note of the failed retaking of the 97.5 support level, leaving late to the party longs out to dry. Should have been more on my game to sniff that out and sell hard into the move down. Overall my market read was not bad today. My complaint would be in my matched aggression on a day of decent rhythm and good opportunity. Price closed at the lows off a weak choppy 5-min. downtrend. Tomorrow look out for trustworthy support zones to get long off of. As prices is in back & fill mode, supports with the daily bull cup at their back should be pretty high probability. Stay especially on the lookout for guys getting trapped short trying to sell this hard.

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