25 Oct 24

 Yesterday was a an early attempt to push lower and test the prior day low. It failed to get down there and that was the best opportunity on the day. I think I was busy at the time so was not at the "store" when those distressed sellers showed up and some other dealer was able to take the supply. I did try to play it later int he afternoon buying the breaks as it was clear shorts were stuck and there was going to be demand throughout the day. With that said, I still had some bad buys getting stuck with some lame inventory. This comes from a lack of patience and discipline for those better entries - tails, oversold conditions etc.

Lastly the risk control was good. The stop use was good and coming at the trades from a the perspective of how do I manage that 2% risk as opposed to how do I make as much on this trade as possible has been a major shift. Look at the stops as high% sell locations and then size accordingly. Today try using the 5 minute as the main screen and the 1 minute for confirmation - maybe ill shrink it down to  3 or 4 minute to manage some of the risk. 

Anyway, yesterday failed to break low, closed near highs and continued trending overnight. Will open gap higher. Look for longs, watch the gap. Beware of overbought conditions however. 

Today two things happened. One I was buying up at the highs expecting a trend day to continue and then I tried buying as the market was pulling back. Note how the market consolidated mid day. The ADX dropped and the market broke down from consolidation and there was no buying. But the trades today where I lost were spec. trades. I spec. bought a possible range break high that failed and I spec. bought the early trend. So what system can I put in place to SOOT during these markets? The risk management is definitely one. Actually the problem is not the analysis. It's the FOMO buying especially coupled with more management and risk controls. You know when it is a FOMO buy, and if you still do it, you have to manage that risk with small sizes, trail stops and tight targets. But really, just minimize the FOMO. Wait for some emotional selling. Wait for more clear technical signals.