12/7 Post

 Thursday and Friday were rotational days holding Wednesday's prices. The market appears to be accepting these higher prices which is good if you are a seller, but it is also being driven by it's technical up trend and other bullish news factors:

On December 6, 2024, U.S. stock market performance was largely influenced by anticipation of upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and economic data releases. Key factors driving the market included:

1. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Investors were focused on the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut during the December 18 meeting. Federal Reserve members suggested that inflation and employment metrics were approaching levels that might warrant a reduction in rates. The probability of a December rate cut was priced at over 75%【127†source】【129†source】.

2. Sector-Specific Developments: Technology stocks led gains, particularly within the Nasdaq, which hit a new record high. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 also posted modest gains as investor sentiment was buoyed by strong holiday sales data from Black Friday and Cyber Monday【127†source】.

3. Economic Data: Markets awaited upcoming reports such as November’s nonfarm payroll data and other employment metrics, which could significantly shape the Federal Reserve's decision-making process. Retail sales trends also painted a positive picture for consumer spending, aiding market sentiment【127†source】.

This combination of optimism surrounding Federal Reserve policy and robust consumer activity bolstered U.S. equity markets during the trading day.

12/4 Post

 Today, U.S. financial markets experienced significant gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reaching new record highs. The rally was driven by investor optimism about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month, boosting confidence in sectors such as technology, financials, and real estate. The dollar strengthened against major currencies, while anticipation of easing inflation added to positive market sentiment.

Despite broader economic concerns, market analysts remain cautiously optimistic, attributing much of the rally to improving macroeconomic conditions and expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy.

12/3 Post

 No change today. range day within the context of yesterday's range. Very short term market now in a 2-day range in the context of the longer term up trend. 

Today, U.S. stock markets saw notable gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reaching record highs. This positive performance was largely driven by strong investor sentiment around a potential Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Tech stocks, particularly within the semiconductor and cloud computing sectors, led the rally. Additionally, renewed optimism in the financial and real estate sectors contributed to broader market momentum.

These developments indicate growing confidence in economic resilience despite lingering concerns over inflation and global market dynamics.

Tuesday Dec. 2nd Notes

 Today the market held it all time high prices as the market continues its bull run. 6050 is the high price area.5870 is that pullback low, where the market pulled back to before continuing back to test the highs. 

Today saw steady volume as Financial stocks led the rally on optimism re: Federal Rate Cuts as treasury yields soften and eco data slightly contracts. 

 Market remains in a balance area. Perhaps it will until election ends? The edges are essentially 5800 to 5900. Market needs to accept above or below these prices to break its range. So remember you are in a range market so do not chase trends and odds are market will settle into intra day ranges. 

Last night it did trade down and test 5800 during Europe. This is the low end of the range. Being down at these prices I want to be a buyer. There is potential to break and trend higher as higher time frame buyers may be participating. Risk is if it breaks the 5800 level and it truly breaks. You can get run over buying it. 

 Yesterday I did a pretty decent job with my management and risk control. There were some bad trades in there again, too aggressive, too high risk. But at least I wasn't being stubborn and selling it out at the lows. You have to adjust your strategy when the market is in balance. Which is was yesterday and it is today. You also need to get better at taking those emotional sellers supply as opposed to missing it and then buying for continuation. These work sometimes but not enough to build a business upon. 

These types of entries are more likely in a range environment, in an uptrend environment you need to be more aggressive and in a down trend environment you will get run over. Know the trend of the day, the 1 minute trend and then know the context of the overall market via 30 min profile. Sometimes the market can be in a balance or range situation, but near the top of the range and the day's momentum could be to the downside as those longer term buyers are liquidating their inventory.  

 The lightbulb moment is that I need to use good management and risk control to trade properly. That means taking partial profits, moving trailing stops. Using hard risk and size rules. That coupled with entry guidelines and sound strategy is how I need to trade. Each of these parts are separate but work together and need to be trained. Where I have gotten into trouble last week was in poor trade management. Almost all those losing trades I could have made out okay on if I had managed the trade better. I also had poor strategy on the early trend gap open entry and poor tactics on the entry. You have to wait for those more meaningful "used gun" entries. Too much FOMO at work. 

Anyway, the market got caught short. Yesterday it opened higher and in a way all it did was bring the market into balance. In hindsight this should have been the yellow light for chasing long the gap higher. But the market closed in a 3 day balance at the lows. Well Europe took it higher overnight and now you have the potential of a break out higher. It is still in balance technically so beware of buying in the upper part of this balance as you leverage off intra day supports for longs. Keep your risk tight, your targets tight and trail your stops. Also play on the defensive when it comes to an intra day trend lower as well.